Bailout blues: A few words about FORD.
Everybody talks about GM. But nobody is really talking about
Ford much. Why not? Well, Ford has $25 billion in cash on hand. It
also has $242 billion in assets, about the same amount as its
debts. At its current rate of cash burn, it can probably last a
couple of years, but it isn't likely to keep burning cash at the
current rate, unlike GM. Also, Ford only lost $2.7 billion dollars
last year, compared with GM's disastrous loss of $43.3 billion. In
other words, with or without a bailout, Ford isn't in imminent
danger of failure.
While bankruptcy and possible liquidation may be the only way
out for GM, just because Ford is in the same business doesn't mean
that it is on life support. Its future prospects look much better
than GM's; it is fairly well positioned to weather the coming
financial storm. When the economy comes out of its current death
spiral and the temporary reprieve from ever-increasing oil prices
is over, and gas hits $5 per gallon, Ford will be much closer to
being able to compete in the fuel efficient small car market than
GM.
That being said, the fact is, Ford isn't exactly a great
bargain; it has problems. It is decades behind the rest of the
industry in terms of innovation, and it has some PR problems
due to
poor quality in the past, but it is still light years ahead
of GM. If I
was investing in an American auto company, Ford would be the
one I
would want to own (Actually, Tesla may not be a bad bet, but
it isn't a major manufacturer. Yet. Also, it's a private company;
it hasn't had an IPO. Yet.).
Here are a few items to think about:
Ford has been embraced by the "Greenies" to some extent,
while the half-baked
attempts by GM to make the vastly underpowered "Volt" to
placate them has been met
with more scepticism and often downright contempt. it is
making some real attempts to produce better, more fuel efficient,
more technologically innovative products.
The 2010 Ford Fusion hybrid will operate on electric power
until it reaches 47 mph. With decent power and 35 mpg, it should be
a fairly attractive hybrid offering at $31,055 MSRP. It won't be
the best in the field, but it should have respectable sales figures
because it is made by an American company.
http://www.greencar.com/features/fusion-hybrid-paces-nascar/
It probably has a brighter future than the Volt, but I don't
expect that it will dominate the industry; it will have some tough
competition from the Prius, but Honda's new 45 mpg, $23,550 Civic
hybrid will also hurt sales.
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-hybrid/price.aspx
In preparation for the long term, Ford is doing a little
research into next-gen technologies: The Ford Edge fuel cell
vehicle is actually in
real-world testing, although it currently costs several
million dollars each to make them (Ford doesn't have to spend the
money to make them, though; they are paid for by us taxpayers,
courtesy of the Department Of Energy). The research is still in its
early stages, though. An actual production model is expected within
the next 20 to 30 years.
http://www.ford.com/innovation/environmentally-friendly/hydrogen/ford-edge-hyseries/edge-fuel-cell-hybrid-346p
Unfortunately, Honda is already selling fuel cell vehicles.
This year's Honda FC model is leasing for $600 per month, including
full maintenance and collision insurance.
http://automobiles.honda.com/fcx-clarity/?from=fcx.honda.com
Ford Mustangs are among the muscle cars of choice for
hobbyists doing total electric conversions. They're building 600
Horse Power, 125 mile range total electric lithium-ion powered
Mustangs:
http://www.greencar.com/features/ronaele/
Unfortunately, Ford is still using NiMH batteries for its
hybrid offerings; it claims that lithium ion technology is too
expensive, unsafe and at least 10 years from being feasible.
Meanwhile, Li-Ion are the current battery of choice for hobbyists
and competing manufacturers alike. Ford expects to be able to
produce a lithium-ion battery that is capable of powering a car
within the next two to three decades.
In other words, Ford needs to take a serious look at its
research and development department. It may need to clean house and
bring in some really smart scientists whose ideas of innovation
weren't obsolete when Nixon was president.
On another front, Ford has a very expensive labor force in
comparison to its competitors. Foreign companies whose governments
pay for health care have much lower costs for those benefits, and,
in many cases, hourly wages are much, much lower than in the U.S.
However, Obama may institute "fair trade" policies which can be
used to offset the difference in wages.
Ford has some real problems. The future for Ford is probably
pretty bright, though. A government bailout of GM would mean that
it can survive through April before needing another bailout to last
through June, then it will need another one, etc., etc.; in the
long run, I just don't see an end to GM's problems short of either
firing all of its top management, slashing production and becoming
a much smalller, more efficient company, or filing for bankruptcy.
GM's board will do neither, until it's too late. When GM is either
ultimately liquidated and the new owner (s) close down all of the
superfluous and unprofitable divisions, or the judge appoints a new
management team to trim it down a manageable size, Ford will be in
an excellent position to dominate the U.S. auto market, despite the
technology gap, the reputation gap, the quality gap and its higher
cost of labor in comparison to foreign competition. I would guess
that Ford's stock will be above $10 per share within a few years.