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“Perhaps it is the American people who are too big to fail”

An analysis by Arnie Sherr

Who is really too big to fail? Here are some astounding facts…

TIME Partners with CNN by Bill Saporito Thursday, Mar. 19, 2009                                                                                                            

“How AIG became too big to fail” [1]

AIG seems an unlikely candidate for the company that could bankrupt the planet. Founded 90 years ago in Shanghai, AIG moved its headquarters to New York City as the world headed toward war in 1939. After Maurice R. (Hank) Greenberg took over in 1967, AIG consolidated its global empire. By the time Greenberg was forced out in an accounting scandal 38 years later, AIG had become one of the world's biggest public companies, with sales of $113 billion in 2006 and 116,000 employees in 130 countries, from France to China.

AIG says it has written more than 81 million life-insurance policies, with a face value of $1.9 trillion. It covers roughly 180,000 small businesses and other corporate entities, which employ approximately 106 million people. That makes AIG America's largest life and health insurer; second largest in property and casualty. Through its aircraft-leasing subsidiary, AIG owns more than 950 airline jets. Just for good measure, AIG is a huge provider of insurance to U.S. municipalities, pension funds and other public and private bodies through guaranteed investment contracts and other products that protect participants in 401(k) plans. "We have no choice but to stabilize [it] or else risk enormous impact, not just in the financial system but on the whole U.S. economy," said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The risk is not in any one business but in the connections among them and in the industries in which they compete. As AIG has pointed out in its own analysis, "The extent and interconnectedness of AIG's business is far-reaching and encompasses customers across the globe ranging from governmental agencies, corporations and consumers to counter parties. A failure of AIG could create a chain reaction of enormous proportion." Among other effects, it could lead to mass redemptions of insurance policies, which would theoretically destabilize the industry; the withdrawal of $12 billion to $15 billion in U.S. consumer lending in a credit-short universe; and even damage airframe maker Boeing and jet-engine maker GE, since AIG's aircraft-leasing unit buys more jets than anyone else.

While AIG's holdings are diverse, nearly all its losses centered on AIG FP, which until March 2008 was led by its high-rolling president, Joseph Cassano, a tough-talking Brooklyn, N.Y., native who in the past eight years banked $280 million in cash compensation, or exactly $115 million more than the bonuses at the center of the current controversy. Cassano, who helped found the AIG FP unit in 1987, built his money machine not on anything fraudulent but on what's been described as regulatory arbitrage. As Bernanke explained recently, "AIG exploited a huge gap in the regulatory system. There was no oversight of the Financial Products division. This was a hedge fund, basically, that was attached to a large and stable insurance company."

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Arnie Sherr writes: Sounds immense; doesn’t it?

By comparison, 140 million Americans are working during good economic times (about 104 million in 2009). It is calculated the average U.S. family median income is $48,204 annually[2]. That relates to 116 million American families whose earnings being pumped into the American economy is approximately $5.6 trillion annually or over a two year period, $11.2 trillion.

The total revenue from sales for AIG [3](2006 and 07) equals a mere $234,555 million; whereas, America’s workforce over the same two years earned approximately $10.3 trillion.[4]

Adding GM, Ford, and an estimated 100 billion for each of the years 2007 & 2008 for Chrysler’s revenue from sales ($589.7 billion) to AIG’s revenue from sales ($234.555 million) and still over the same two years America’s workforce out-performed all. ←Source [5]

AIG and the Big Three - $589.7 billion (2007 – 2008) vs. America’s workforce - $ 11.2 trillion (2007 – 2008); throw in the banks to:

“It is the American people who are too big to fail.”

Sources:

[1] TIME, Business & Tech

[2] Worldwide Success

[3] Money Central – MSN

[4]Wikipedia

[5] ProCon.org

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