CNN iReport

The world will increasingly encounter challenges to peace and prosperity by small, rogue states using nuclear weapons capability to threaten, blackmail or otherwise harm their "enemies".  North Korea is just one example of the growing problem; it is one of the most immediate and dangerous for a number of obvious reasons. Here I will suggest a new kind of policy tool that might apply to the North Korean nuclear challenge, or possibly some similar test in the future.  It's a rather brash suggestion, and it seems naïve, even to me, but there might be some germ(s) of utility here.

Background

Many governments and experts agree that North Korea's growing nuclear capabilities are a significant threat to regional and world stability and peace. As a recent example of North Korea's belligerence, its "president" has made a number of declarations that "X is tantamount to a declaration of war," where X is some international action of relatively modest scope. More concretely, North Korea continues to increase its isolation from the rest of the world.  Development of nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems has progressed at a formidable pace.  Barring a change of course, North Korea will soon pose a powerful threat.

The U.S. and other governments are talking tough.  Multinational talks have attempted to deal with the issue, but North Korea is not interested.  These are necessary steps, and every diplomatic channel should be pursued.  It is, however, my expectation that diplomacy will be of little value in this case.  Only on rare occasions has North Korea responded to reasonable discussions or even to sanctions.

Furthermore, the time for diplomacy is short: each day that passes without a resolution gives North Korea the opportunity to further develop their destructive power.  The farther they are along the nuclear development path, the greater the threat becomes and the more difficult the situation is to deal with.  The UN is seeking appropriate actions, also a good thing.  Too often, though, the UN lacks the speed and determination required.

Obstacles to Action

Some actions stronger than words need to be undertaken immediately.  However, the available options generally have massive undesired side effects.  For example, a trade embargo would have severe impact on the general population of North Korea, especially since North Korea's own government would apparently prefer to build nuclear weapons than protect their citizens from poverty and hunger.  In fact, as many renegade countries and groups do, the nation's citizens are a kind of hostage (or shield), inhibiting other nations from acting.  So, the usual list of ways to exert pressure is limited. Even with these problems, something like an embargo seems an almost inevitable step, given the escalating tensions.

Military action could be considered, but the huge costs and hazards of that path are well known. I suspect that military scenarios are being explored behind closed doors, and this approach could become necessary if matters worsen.

An Assumption of Character

In the following, I have a character sketch in mind for the individual nature of (many) North Koreans.  I could be wrong, but I am thinking of a subset of the North Korean people in the context of what I know of some Vietnamese and South Koreans’ personal character.  The North Koreans I’m thinking of are not individuals who have massive hatred for others.  They are not individual terrorists who want to damage the world they see around them.  They are industrious and intelligent people who can adapt to other cultures.  In many cases, they are poor and need education, but are eager to have opportunities to do better.  These are people like others who have joined the US melting pot and become productive, happy citizens.

A Different Policy Tool

For the near future, here's an idea for concrete actions that might reduce the adverse effects of some of the other approaches while in itself increasing the pressure on North Korea's government.  What if the countries of the region (or elsewhere) offered sanctuary to North Koreans who wish to leave their country?  This offer might include some kind of safe passage assurance, and perhaps some limited military force to prevent North Korea from imprisoning or killing people who try to leave.  It would certainly require preparation and commitment on the part of participating nations, and bravery on the part of people who wished to emigrate.

Why might this set of actions cause North Korea to rethink their nuclear program?  First, it is a definite action, beyond words.  Second, it would remove some of North Korea's human shield, increasing the range of external sanctions or actions that could be applied.  Third, it might weaken North Korea's internal structure to some extent.

No doubt, this idea has drawbacks, too.  Many North Koreans could be afraid or unable to leave.  Perhaps it would trigger escalation in North   Korea's actions.

Still, this approach could increase the range of options and, in the long run, prevent many lives from being lost.

A Few Specifics

How could the offer of sanctuary be made in a way that would mitigate the disruption and trauma of leaving the country of your birth and life?  Perhaps a set of ingredients that provide elements of choice to the émigrés. Here are a few ideas that might contribute.  For brevity, I'll present them without discussion.

- Participating sanctuary countries set quotas as high as possible and make plans for assimilation of new citizens.

- Countries who do not or cannot offer asylum contribute monetary and in-kind resources, such as food and transport aid.

- North Koreans wishing to emigrate register as "family" groups. And specify rank ordering of their choice of destination.

- International aid organizations manage, monitor, and support the emigration.

- World press monitors the North Korean response to the initiative.

- A weighted lottery is held to match émigrés to destinations as well as possible.

Closing

I've suggested some rough ideas that relate to past emergency migrations, with some twists to try to reduce the amount of suffering associated with migration under desperate conditions.  The general idea is to increase individuals’ freedoms, and especially to allow those who are victims of totalitarian regimes to reestablish themselves in other, more humane societies. Nothing of this nature or scale has been tried.  Using this kind of "invited emigration" as a policy tool might open new avenues for curbing aggressive actions on the part of North Korea or other rogue states in the future.  It could be a way to defuse micro-nationalism that has run amok.