CNN iReport

Gulf of Mexico – Mexico / Cuba:Hurricane Idaenters the Yucatán Channel between western Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula. Hurricane Watches have been posted for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Ida. Additional tropical cyclone watches or warnings may be required later today.

At 900 am CST, 1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Ida was located about 75 miles northeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 80 miles west-southwest of the western tip of Cuba. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours with a turn toward the north likely by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida should move through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico today and be near the northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Ida is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast today with gradual weakening expected on Monday. Ida is expected to begin losing tropical characteristics on Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast but it could reach the coast as a tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The good news is that the hurricane force wind field is rather small and should not reach either Mexico or Cuba, but the tropical storm force winds will batter both western Cuba and parts of the eastern Yucatán Peninsula as it passes through the Yucatán Channel.

Long Range Forecast:

Ida will now enter into the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to strengthen some prior to weakening while traveling northward. While Ida is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast in about 36 to 48 hours, she should be at a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane while at the same time losing her “tropical” characteristics. Interests along the Gulf Coast should be preparing for flooding rains, coastal flooding, and damaging tropical or hurricane force winds.

Threats & Damages:

The main threat from Ida is life-threatening widespread flash flooding and mudslides as Ida is expected to produce heavy rains through late Sunday for western Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico.

Ida is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 4 feet above ground level along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Expect the infrastructure of water, power, sewer, roads and communications to be disrupted. Travel in western Cuba and the Yucatán will be hampered due blocked roads. Expect air travel delays or even cancellations for the Yucatán.

For the Gulf Coast of the U.S., expect flooding rains and damaging winds to cause minor structural damage mainly along the coastal region from Louisiana to Florida.

Watches & Warnings:

A Hurricane Watchis in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. This watch does not include the city of New Orleans. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to playa del Carmen. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Allen northward to playa del Carmen and from Cabo Catoche westward to San Felipe. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Stormwatch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business operations and travel.

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

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Matthew Swinden

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