iReport.com is a user-generated site. That means the stories submitted by users are not edited, fact-checked or screened before they post. Only stories marked "On CNN" have been vetted for use in CNN news coverage. Learn more »
close
iReport: Unedited. Unfiltered. News.
Upload Now!
iReports
iReporters
Blog
Map
Home > iReports > Story
Is Drilling the Answer to Oil Prices?
Click to view JoesWife's profile Posted by: JoesWife // 3 months ago // viewed 173 times
embed media
Last updated: 3 months ago

This election year energy costs have been a prime concern for most Americans, and our use of, and dependence on foreign oil is being considered as a matter of national security. Especially because it is believed that so much of our oil is imported from Middle Eastern countries with which we have shaky relations at best.
According to the DoE (Department of Energy) the US currently uses an estimated 7 billion barrels of oil a year of which more then 58% of that oil, or roughly 4.1 billion barrels per year is imported. However the top five oil importers to the US are Canada (17.2%), Mexico (12.4%), Saudi Arabia (10.7%), Venezuela (10.4%), and Nigeria (8.1%). The EIA asserts in a 2006 report that "almost 50% of U.S. crude oil and petroleum products imports came from the Western Hemisphere (North, South, and Central America and the Caribbean including U.S. territories) during 2006. We imported only 16% of our crude oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf countries of Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates."
Still most Americans want something to be done to bring down the cost of fuel, and make us more energy independent. Many believe more drilling is the answer. The assumption being we can create a supply greater then our demand. Presidential hopeful, Senator John McCain, has made increasing America's oil supply through drilling a key issue of his campaign, and is calling for lifting the federal moratorium on drilling in the OCS (Outer Continental Shelf). This has already been at least partially accomplished by President Bush, who lifted the Executive Ban in 2008, and then prompted the MMS (Mineral Management Service) to draft a new 5 year plan for 2010-2015, allowing them to get a 2 year "jump-start" on the lengthy process involved with leasing land for drilling.
Under the current 2007-2012 plan though 7 new areas of the OCS are set to be leased starting in 2012. Including one area in the Mid-Atlantic that was previously unavailable for leasing or exploration. However while this area did make it the finalized version of the current 5 year plan there are some questions as to its ability to be leased without lifting the Congressional Ban. However, under the current 5 year plan leasing will begin in the following areas, regardless of congress or who is president, by 2012:

Central Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
Cook Inlet (Alaska)
Beaufort Sea (Alaska)
Chukchi Sea (Alaska)
North Aleutian Basin (Alaska)
Mid-Atlantic (Virginia)

Provided that all of the areas in the 2007-2012 plan were leased and all estimates concerning the recoverable amount of oil/natural gas are correct, and provided oil companies can physically and economically recover all of the oil/natural gas estimated to be in the program areas this would supply the US with an additional 10.1 billion barrels of oil and 45.43 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. But not until the year 2030, assuming production begins in 2017. However, the net economic benefit from leasing these areas is estimated to be $166.3 billion dollars by 2017. Provided that all available areas are leased. If they're not this number would be decreased by the lease value of each unleased area. Also this estimate does not reflect the cost to oversee the leasing, which includes resource information, exploration data, environmental studies and preperation, and the supervision of operations for the current 5 year plan (2007-2012).
There are also matters of infrastrucre, location, climate, and drilling boundaries to be considered. After purchasing a leasing agreement from the MMS, oil companies will have to spend signifgant time and resources determining the most productive places to drill. Currently and in the past there have been areas leased by companies that were never developed (drilled) for a variety of reasons. Drilling is easier in some places then others especially where off shore drilling is concerned. Water depth represents the biggest challenge. The shallower the area the easier it is drill. Once locations have been determined the infrastructure to support the drilling must be built. Like drilling wells and erecting platforms. The building of the infrastructure and drilling itself can be effected by weather and climate. Hurricane Katrina and hurricane Rita both temporarily halted drilling back in 2005. Alaska's arctic climate in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea could have the most dramatic effect on both the building of an infrastructure and drilling since even in the summer the average temperature only reaches 2*C. Permenant sea ice in these areas are also cause for concern. There is also a boundary dispute between the US and Canada (the US's largest importer of oil) which has yet to be resolved. There is also the matter of what is economically recoverable versus what is technically recoverable. Just because the oil can be reached doesn't mean it is economical to do so. If the cost associated with drilling and refining the oil is more then the cost it can be sold for it is considered to be not economically recoverable.
If the Congressional Ban were to be lifted entirely the ban entirely, including the ban on the Eastern Gulf of Mexico not set to expire till 2022, the following areas of the OCS wold be made available for leasing by the MMS:

North Atlantic
Mid-Atlantic
South Atlantic
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico
Washington/Oregon
Northern California
Central California
Southern California

The EIA estimates the amount of techniaclly recoverable, undiscovered oil in these areas to total about 18.17 billion barrels. Southern California is suspected to have the largest amount with an estimated 5.58 billion barrels, while Washington/Oregon is expected to have only 0.40 billion barrels. As for natural gas these areas are suspected to contain an estimated 77.17 trillion cubic feet of gas. About a third of all natural gas currently recovered from areas of the OCS we drill now. The largest deposits are expected to be located in the three Atlantic regions totaling an estimated 36.99 trillion cubic feet, with the smallest estimates based again in Washington/Oregon with 2.28 trillion cubic feet.
Assuming Congress does not reinstate the exsisting moritoria on these areas they will expire in 2012 and exploration of these areas could begin. However, projections made by the EIA show that oil production would not be expected to begin before 2017, and that drilling "would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030", and that "Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant".
Projections made by the EIA concerning natural gas assert that "natural gas production is not projected to increase substantially by 2030 as a result of increased access to the OCS", and that "despite the increase in production from previously restricted areas after 2012, total natural gas production from the lower 48 OCS is projected generally to decline after 2020". The report also states that "Although a significant volume of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources is added in the OCS access case, conversion of those resources to production would require both time and money. In addition, the average field size in the Pacific and Atlantic regions tends to be smaller than the average in the Gulf of Mexico, implying that a significant portion of the additional resource would not be economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices."

Sources:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
http://www.mms.gov/mmshome.htm
http://www.usgs.gov/
http://www.doe.gov/
http://www.johnmccain.com/
Special thanks to iReporter Cwalls for pointing out the HUGE mistake in my first post..
In response to assignment: Energy Fix
Average Rating (16)
E-mail to a friendE-mail this story | Share
Log in to report violation
Log in to Comment Comments