This election year energy costs have been a prime concern for
most Americans, and our use of, and dependence on foreign oil is
being considered as a matter of national security. Especially
because it is believed that so much of our oil is imported from
Middle Eastern countries with which we have shaky relations at
best.
According to the DoE (Department of Energy) the US currently
uses an estimated 7 billion barrels of oil a year of which more
then 58% of that oil, or roughly 4.1 billion barrels per year is
imported. However the top five oil importers to the US are Canada
(17.2%), Mexico (12.4%), Saudi Arabia (10.7%), Venezuela (10.4%),
and Nigeria (8.1%). The EIA asserts in a 2006 report that "almost
50% of U.S. crude oil and petroleum products imports came from the
Western Hemisphere (North, South, and Central America and the
Caribbean including U.S. territories) during 2006. We imported only
16% of our crude oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf
countries of Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United
Arab Emirates."
Still most Americans want something to be done to bring down
the cost of fuel, and make us more energy independent. Many believe
more drilling is the answer. The assumption being we can create a
supply greater then our demand. Presidential hopeful, Senator John
McCain, has made increasing America's oil supply through drilling a
key issue of his campaign, and is calling for lifting the federal
moratorium on drilling in the OCS (Outer Continental Shelf). This
has already been at least partially accomplished by President Bush,
who lifted the Executive Ban in 2008, and then prompted the MMS
(Mineral Management Service) to draft a new 5 year plan for
2010-2015, allowing them to get a 2 year "jump-start" on the
lengthy process involved with leasing land for drilling.
Under the current 2007-2012 plan though 7 new areas of the
OCS are set to be leased starting in 2012. Including one area in
the Mid-Atlantic that was previously unavailable for leasing or
exploration. However while this area did make it the finalized
version of the current 5 year plan there are some questions as to
its ability to be leased without lifting the Congressional Ban.
However, under the current 5 year plan leasing will begin in the
following areas, regardless of congress or who is president, by
2012:
Central Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
Cook Inlet (Alaska)
Beaufort Sea (Alaska)
Chukchi Sea (Alaska)
North Aleutian Basin (Alaska)
Mid-Atlantic (Virginia)
Provided that all of the areas in the 2007-2012 plan were
leased and all estimates concerning the recoverable amount of
oil/natural gas are correct, and provided oil companies can
physically and economically recover all of the oil/natural gas
estimated to be in the program areas this would supply the US with
an additional 10.1 billion barrels of oil and 45.43 trillion cubic
feet of natural gas. But not until the year 2030, assuming
production begins in 2017. However, the net economic benefit from
leasing these areas is estimated to be $166.3 billion dollars by
2017. Provided that all available areas are leased. If they're not
this number would be decreased by the lease value of each unleased
area. Also this estimate does not reflect the cost to oversee the
leasing, which includes resource information, exploration data,
environmental studies and preperation, and the supervision of
operations for the current 5 year plan (2007-2012).
There are also matters of infrastrucre, location, climate,
and drilling boundaries to be considered. After purchasing a
leasing agreement from the MMS, oil companies will have to spend
signifgant time and resources determining the most productive
places to drill. Currently and in the past there have been areas
leased by companies that were never developed (drilled) for a
variety of reasons. Drilling is easier in some places then others
especially where off shore drilling is concerned. Water depth
represents the biggest challenge. The shallower the area the easier
it is drill. Once locations have been determined the infrastructure
to support the drilling must be built. Like drilling wells and
erecting platforms. The building of the infrastructure and drilling
itself can be effected by weather and climate. Hurricane Katrina
and hurricane Rita both temporarily halted drilling back in 2005.
Alaska's arctic climate in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea could
have the most dramatic effect on both the building of an
infrastructure and drilling since even in the summer the average
temperature only reaches 2*C. Permenant sea ice in these areas are
also cause for concern. There is also a boundary dispute between
the US and Canada (the US's largest importer of oil) which has yet
to be resolved. There is also the matter of what is economically
recoverable versus what is technically recoverable. Just because
the oil can be reached doesn't mean it is economical to do so. If
the cost associated with drilling and refining the oil is more then
the cost it can be sold for it is considered to be not economically
recoverable.
If the Congressional Ban were to be lifted entirely the ban
entirely, including the ban on the Eastern Gulf of Mexico not set
to expire till 2022, the following areas of the OCS wold be made
available for leasing by the MMS:
North Atlantic
Mid-Atlantic
South Atlantic
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico
Washington/Oregon
Northern California
Central California
Southern California
The EIA estimates the amount of techniaclly recoverable,
undiscovered oil in these areas to total about 18.17 billion
barrels. Southern California is suspected to have the largest
amount with an estimated 5.58 billion barrels, while
Washington/Oregon is expected to have only 0.40 billion barrels. As
for natural gas these areas are suspected to contain an estimated
77.17 trillion cubic feet of gas. About a third of all natural gas
currently recovered from areas of the OCS we drill now. The largest
deposits are expected to be located in the three Atlantic regions
totaling an estimated 36.99 trillion cubic feet, with the smallest
estimates based again in Washington/Oregon with 2.28 trillion cubic
feet.
Assuming Congress does not reinstate the exsisting moritoria
on these areas they will expire in 2012 and exploration of these
areas could begin. However, projections made by the EIA show that
oil production would not be expected to begin before 2017, and that
drilling "would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil
and natural gas production or prices before 2030", and that
"Because oil prices are determined on the international market,
however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be
insignificant".
Projections made by the EIA concerning natural gas assert
that "natural gas production is not projected to increase
substantially by 2030 as a result of increased access to the OCS",
and that "despite the increase in production from previously
restricted areas after 2012, total natural gas production from the
lower 48 OCS is projected generally to decline after 2020". The
report also states that "Although a significant volume of
undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources
is added in the OCS access case, conversion of those resources to
production would require both time and money. In addition, the
average field size in the Pacific and Atlantic regions tends to be
smaller than the average in the Gulf of Mexico, implying that a
significant portion of the additional resource would not be
economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices."
Sources:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
http://www.mms.gov/mmshome.htm
http://www.usgs.gov/
http://www.doe.gov/
http://www.johnmccain.com/
Special thanks to iReporter Cwalls for pointing out the HUGE
mistake in my first post..
In response to assignment:
Energy Fix